New Tool Enhances Ecosystem Restoration with Climate-Smart Seed Sourcing

In the face of accelerating climate change, a novel tool—the Climate-Oriented Seed Sourcing Tool (COSST)—has been developed to optimize seed-sourcing decision-making for ecosystem restoration projects.

Designed for use in any seed-based restoration context, COSST provides a data-driven, spatially explicit approach to prioritize potential and existing seed sources. It accounts for the current and future climate of the restoration site, as well as species’ climatic sensitivities.

Ecosystem restoration plays a critical role in mitigating biodiversity loss and climate change. When degradation is profound, sowing seeds can trigger ecosystem recovery, raising a key question: where to source the right seeds for the right place?

There has been ongoing debate about the best strategies for seed sourcing, ranging from traditional approaches prioritizing local seeds to modern strategies that incorporate non-local seeds to enhance climate change adaptation.

Seed mix in a restoration project, Brazil. Source: Bárbara Pacheco.

“When we started looking at the seed provenancing literature, we realized that there are plenty of papers laying out the theoretical advantages of one strategy or another, but we were missing a methodology to apply such ideas in practice,” said Dr Mateus Silva, the lead researcher based on the University of Exeter, UK.

“Instead of focusing on one provenancing or another, we opted for offering practitioners the chance to map best seed sources for a given site and species across a spectrum of strategies, from ‘local-is-best’ to future-proofing”.

Simplified Inputs for Complex Restoration Needs

COSST ranks areas within a species’ range on a scale from 0 to 1, where 0 represents the minimum and 1 maximum priority for seed sourcing. In other words, seeds originating from places with higher COSST index have higher priority to make to the restoration seed mix.

If the seed collection sites for the target species are mapped, the user can use COSST’s prioritization index to estimate the proportion of seeds required from each collection site or vendor, streamlining seed procurement during restoration planning.

“We wanted to develop a tool that requires minimal input data,” Dr Silva emphasized. “Users only need the restoration site coordinates, climatic layers, and Species Distribution Models (SDMs), all of which come directly or indirectly from open databases, such as WorldClim and GBIF”.

The user can select from three provenancing strategies:

·       Composite: Prioritizes seed sources near the restoration site.

·       Predictive: Focuses on sources matching the future climate at the restoration site.

·       Climate-adjusted: Balances composite and predictive strategies.

Dr Silva highlights COSST’s flexibility: “For the first time, we are harnessing SDMs to take into consideration the range and climatic niche of the focal species, making species-specific rather than general seed sourcing predictions”.

The tool data flow. Source: Original publication.

Moreover, the climate-adjusted approach not only balances geographic and climatic optimizations but also penalizes the climatic optimization in areas where future forecasts diverge, then controlling for future climate uncertainty.

A Key Tool for the Brazilian Cerrado and Beyond

COSST has been applied to the Brazilian Cerrado, a global biodiversity hotspot home of more than 12,000 plant species and a region facing rapid land-use change. The case study focused on the pequi nut tree (Caryocar brasiliense), an iconic savanna tree with edible fruits and nuts.

The tool identified different high-priority seed-sourcing areas for two restoration sites under composite, predictive, and climate-adjusted strategies, demonstrating its adaptability to diverse restoration contexts.

COSST’s seed sourcing spatial prioritization. Source: Original publication.

The applications do not end in the Cerrado, instead, the tool extends to any species for which SDMs can be fitted, making it relevant for a wide range of ecosystems across the globe.

Overcoming Challenges and Scaling Up

While COSST offers a versatile resource for restoration planning under climate change, widespread adoption in existing seed supply chains faces challenges related to seed traceability, production capacity, and transportation logistics.

Scaling up COSST or similar tools requires accurate mapping seed collection sites in the wild, as well as tagging and storing seed batches by location—a complex task for large vendors managing extensive seed inventories.

Seed germinating in the field, Brazil. Source: Bárbara Pacheco.

Looking Ahead

COSST’s code, developed in R, is publicly available. The research team plans to expand the tool into a web-based application and R package, further increasing accessibility for practitioners and academics.

Dr Silva concludes: “Despite implementation challenges, we believe that COSST offers significant opportunities to improve restoration outcomes by helping practitioners select the appropriate seeds for each site, ensuring that genetic diversity is maintained while supporting adaptative strategies under climate change”.

Cerrado landscape, Brazil. Source: Ana Christina.